The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
Swiss Labour Market Barometer shows first signs of recovery
For the first time since July 2023, both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer are back in positive territory. In fact, the (seasonally-adjusted) short-term outlook for employment climbed in March 2024 to 101.0, slightly above the short-term (seasonally-adjusted) outlook for registered unemployment, at 100.2 percentage points.
“In March, the labour market experts at the RAVs anticipated a slight decline in unemployment (seasonally adjusted) and an increase in employment for the next three months. This outlook is encouraging, as the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate actually rose slightly in real terms between February and March from 2.2% to 2.3%,” says Oliver Schärli, head of the Labour market/unemployment insurance division at SECO.
If we look back at the indicator values from the almost three years since the Swiss Labour Market Barometer launched, it seems that seasonal factors may affect the labour market outlook.
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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