The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
A trend reversal on the Swiss labour market?
The outlook for the Swiss labour market deteriorated in October compared with previous months. At 98.2 percentage points, the (seasonally adjusted) short-term labour market outlook is at its lowest level since the barometer was launched in May 2021.
“Looking ahead to the next three months, in October the labour market experts at the RAVs anticipated a noticeable rise in unemployment and an equally noticeable fall in employment. Owing to the still short time series, it is too early to say to what extent the experts’ assessments also reflect seasonal trends”, says Oliver Schärli, head of the Labour market/unemployment insurance division at SECO.
At 97.9, the short-term outlook for registered unemployment (seasonally adjusted) is still slightly worse than the short-term outlook for employment (seasonally adjusted), which in October reached 98.6.
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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